South Australia is expected to be hit by a record number of daily Covid-19 cases, new modeling has revealed.
The Omicron BA.5 variant will be the peak driver, which is expected to hit in the next two months.
Chief Public Health Officer Nicola Spurrier said the magnitude of the wave was expected to reach between 4,000 and 5,000 cases per day.
She said the recent modeling had been the most uncertain so far, as the state no longer has international data as a basis now that international borders are open.
“Hospitalizations have had a smaller wave, and that’s our expectation, but I can’t say how accurate this estimate is,” said Professor Spurrier.
“There is quite a bit of uncertainty around this model.
“The wave will not be worse than what we have experienced with previous variants.
“It will pressure the hospital system, but it won’t be catastrophic.”
Camera icon Chief Public Health Officer Nicola Spurrier said the recent modeling was the most “uncertain”. NCA NewsWire/Naomi Jellicoe Credit: News Corp Australia
Earlier in the day, Prime Minister Peter Malinauskas warned South Australians of the expected spike in the daily number of cases, which will hit in about six to eight weeks.
But he said the rise “shouldn’t be a cause for alarm” and didn’t expect restrictions to change.
“In NSW, the new BA.5 numbers have risen quite dramatically at the moment, to a lesser extent in Victoria, and there is now a presence of the BA.5 variant in South Australia,” said Mr. Malinauskas after the Emergency meeting Tuesday’s Management Committee.
“This is what we will see over the coming months and years – the number of cases will rise, and the number of claims will fall, and we need to be equipped to deal with that circumstance.
Camera icon Prime Minister Peter Malinauskas has revealed that the state is expected to be hit by another wave of Omicron in the winter. NCA NewsWire/Martin Ollman Credit: News Corp Australia
“The number of cases has dropped quite drastically (in SA). They are currently around 2000, but hospital admissions have remained more or less the same.”
The prime minister said that with the predease in hospital admissions is also possiblepossible with the predicted wavee dramatic, but any increase in the hospital system is something we are concerned about given the pressure the system is experiencing.”
Malinauskas said the variant was no more serious than previous strains but more transmissible.
Camera icon Malinauskas said the spike in cases “should not be a cause for alarm.” NCA NewsWire/Martin Ollman Credit: News Corp Australia
According to SA Health data, the latest genome sampling taken between June 1 and 7 revealed 83.7 percent of the BA.2 strain.
Health Minister Chris Picton said the health system was already under “extreme pressure,” and all workers were “working out their guts” with flu and Covid-19 patients.
The state has recorded 11 deaths, including a woman in her 40s, and 2,270 new infections in the past 24 hours.
There are currently more than 16,000 active cases in the state.
